Analysis: What Pope Francis’ new cardinals reveal about
future conclave
Cardinals follow the
ceremony during the ordinary public consistory for the creation of new
cardinals at St. Peter’s Basilica, Vatican City, Dec. 7, 2024. | Credit: Daniel
Ibáñez/CAN
Rome Newsroom, Dec 8, 2024 / 18:36 pm
A record 140 cardinals may attend an eventual conclave in
the Sistine Chapel. There would have been 141, but Cardinal Miguel Angel Ayuso
Guixot’s death on Nov. 25 reduced the number by one. In all, the Sacred College
of Cardinals now has 255 members.
The number of cardinal electors is the most critical data
point to emerge from this weekend’s consistory. Of the 140 cardinal electors,
110 have been created by Pope Francis, 24 by Pope Benedict XVI, and six by St.
John Paul II. At the end of the year, on Dec. 24, Indian Cardinal Oswald Gracias,
created cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2007, will reach 80 years of age and will,
therefore, no longer be able to participate in a conclave.
Another 14 cardinals will turn 80 in 2025. They are
Cardinals Christoph Schöenborn, Fernando Vérgez Alzaga, Celestino Aós Braco,
George Alencherry, Carlos Osoro Sierra, Robert Sarah, Stanisław Ryłko, Joseph
Coutts, Vinko Puljić, Antonio Cañizares Llovera, Vincent Nichols, Jean-Pierre
Kutwa, Nakellentuba Ouédraogo, and Timothy Radcliffe.
Two of these were created by St. John Paul II, four by
Benedict XVI, and eight by Pope Francis.
However, it will be necessary to wait until May 2026 to
return to the figure of 120 cardinal electors established by St. Paul VI and
never abrogated.
Pope Francis’ choices
For the first time, there is now a cardinal in Iran,
Archbishop Dominique Matthieu of Tehran-Ispahan, a Belgian missionary. It is
also the first time there is a cardinal in Serbia, with Archbishop Ladislav
Nemet of Belgrade receiving the red hat.
Pope Francis has created cardinals from 72 different
nations, and 24 of those nations have never had a cardinal before.
Pope Francis has also shown that he does not choose based on
the traditional seats of cardinals. For example, there are no cardinals to lead
the two historic European patriarchates of Lisbon and Venice, nor in Milan,
Florence, or Paris.
There are exceptions, however. In this consistory, Pope
Francis created cardinals in the archbishops of Turin and Naples in Italy;
Lima, Peru; Santiago de Chile; Toronto; and the vicar general of the Diocese of
Rome.
Naples entered the list somewhat surprisingly, with the
pope’s decision communicated in a statement from the Holy See Press Office on
Nov. 4. Archbishop Domenico Battaglia of Naples replaced Bishop Paskalis Bruno
Syukur of Bogor, Indonesia, who had asked Pope Francis to remove him from the
list of new cardinals for unspecified personal reasons.
The geographical balance of the College of Cardinals
The pope did not decide to replace a possible Indonesian
cardinal with another cardinal from Asia.
Meanwhile, the percentage of Italian cardinals in the
College of Cardinals is the lowest ever, at least in modern times. Only during
the so-called Avignon Captivity (1309–1377) was the percentage of Italian
cardinals so low.
However, to Italy’s 17 must be added Cardinal Pierbattista
Pizzaballa, Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, who is included in the quota of Asia,
and Cardinal Giorgio Marengo, ordinary of Mongolia, also in Asia.
Cardinal Angelo Becciu is instead considered a non-elector,
but this status is still being determined. Pope Francis had asked him to
renounce his prerogatives as a cardinal but has continued to invite him to
consistories and Masses, where he has always sat among the cardinals. If a
decision is not made before then, the College of Cardinals, with a majority
vote, will decide whether or not Becciu will be admitted to the conclave.
Regional distribution
The balance crucially stays the same. Europe has received
three more cardinals, in addition to the four Italians with the right to vote:
Nemet of Belgrade, 58; Archbishop Rolandas Makrickas, 52, coadjutor archpriest
of the papal Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore since March; and Dominican Father
Timothy Radcliffe, 79. Europe now has 55 cardinals.
Latin America has received five new cardinals. The purple
has arrived in dioceses that have received it several times — with Archbishop
Carlos Gustavo Castillo Mattasoglio, 74, in Lima, Peru, and Archbishop Fernando
N. Chomali Garib, 67, in Santiago de Chile — or only once — with Archbishop
Luis Gerardo Cabrera Herrera, 69, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, and Archbishop Jaime
Spengler, 64, who is also president of CELAM (the Episcopal Conference of Latin
America), in Porto Alegre, Brazil.
The red birretta to Archbishop Vicente Bokalic Iglic, 72, of
Santiago del Estero, Argentina, is also a first. However, in this case, the
ground had already been prepared by the recent decision to move the title of
primate of Argentina from Buenos Aires to this seat. Overall, Latin America now
has 24 cardinals (including Braco, emeritus of Santiago de Chile, born in
Spain).
Asia has received four new cardinals. The pope gave the red
hat to Archbishop Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi of Tokyo, 66, and to the bishops of
two dioceses that have never had a cardinal at the helm: Bishop Pablo Virgilio
Siongco David, 65, of Kalookan in the Philippines, and Archbishop Dominique
Joseph Mathieu, 61, of Tehran.
Africa has received two new cardinals, bringing the
continent’s total to 18. The two new ones are Archbishop Jean-Paul Vesco, 62,
in Algiers, and Archbishop Ignace Bessi Dogbo, 63, in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.
North America now has 14 electors, with the addition of
Toronto Archbishop Francis Leo, 53. Oceania has four electors, with the
creation of Bishop Mykola Bychok of the eparchy of Saints Peter and Paul in
Melbourne of the Ukrainians as cardinal. At 44, he has become the youngest
member of the College of Cardinals.
National representation
Italy remains the most represented nation in the conclave,
with 17 electors (plus two more in Asia). The United States has 10 cardinal
electors, and Spain has seven (with another three in Morocco, Chile, and
France).
Brazil has increased to seven electors, and India to six
electors. France remains at five electors, to which Vesco in North Africa has
been added. Cardinal François-Xavier Bustillo, bishop of Ajaccio, is
anagraphically Spanish although naturalized French.
Argentina and Canada join Poland and Portugal with four
cardinal electors, while Germany is tied with the Philippines and Great Britain
with three.
The weight of cardinal electors engaged in the Curia, in
other Roman roles or the nunciatures, has decreased, like that of the Italians.
They will be 34 out of 140, a historic low.
Of the 21 new cardinals, 10 (all electors) belong to
religious orders and congregations, another record. The number of religious
electors in the sacred college has risen from 27 to 35. The Friars Minor joined
the Salesians at five and surpassed the Jesuits, who remain at four. The
Franciscan family grows to 10 electors (five Minors, three Conventuals, and two
Capuchins). The Lazarists and Redemptorists rise to two.
What would a possible conclave be like?
As of Dec. 8, Pope Francis has created 78% of the cardinals
who can vote in a conclave. This means that the cardinals created by Pope
Francis far exceed the two-thirds majority needed to elect a pope.
This does not necessarily mean that the conclave will be
“Francis-like.” Not only do the new cardinals all have very different profiles,
but they have yet to have much opportunity to get to know each other. Popes
have also used consistories to bring together cardinals to discuss issues of
general interest.
Pope Francis had done so only three times: in 2014, when the
family was discussed; in 2015, when the topic was the reform of the Curia; and
in 2022, when the apostolic constitution Praedicate Evangelium, or
the reform of the Curia now defined and promulgated, was discussed.
In this last meeting, the cardinals were divided into
linguistic groups, with fewer opportunities to speak in the assembly together.
This scenario makes the vote very uncertain.
Another fact that should be noted is that until St. John
Paul II’s election, the cardinals gathered in the conclave were housed in
makeshift accommodations in the Apostolic Palace near the Sistine Chapel. John
Paul II had the Domus Sanctae Marthae (St. Martha House) renovated precisely to
guarantee the cardinals who would elect his successor more adequate accommodations.
Today, however, Pope Francis lives in the Domus Sanctae
Marthae. This means that, upon the pope’s death, at least the floor where the
pontiff lives must be sealed, as the papal apartment is sealed. Sealing a floor
of the Domus also means losing a considerable number of rooms. And with such a
high number of voters, it also means risking not having enough rooms to
accommodate all the cardinals.
The electors could be placed in vacant apartments within
Vatican City State. This, however, would make them even more isolated. In
practice, there is a risk that, during the conclave, the cardinals would not
always be able to be together to discuss the election.
For these reasons, although Pope Francis has created more
than two-thirds of the cardinal electors, it is by no means certain that the
pope chosen in a future conclave will have the same profile as Pope Francis.
Andrea Gagliarducci is
an Italian journalist for Catholic News Agency and Vatican analyst for ACI
Stampa. He is a contributor to the National Catholic Register.
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